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Markets might not outperform anymore
August, 18th 2010

What do you think is happening because the underlying market seems to have had some pretty strong moves on the mid and small cap side, but the index seems to have gotten into a jam again. Are we in a breakout phase or are we going to the range of 5500-4900? How do you see it?

Well it's very easy to say that the market is going to be in a large range because then you are not really taking a direction call and the market has been range-bound for the last 4 to 6 weeks.

But when the midcaps and small caps run away in a blow out fashion and the index and the large caps do nothing, typically that is the blow out phase for the entire market and you could really call it a distribution phase. The way the Nifty has been stuck in that 5350-5500 band for the last 5 weeks, gives me the indication that we could be actually through a distribution phase.

The main contributor to the market rally in the last couple of months has been banking because if you look at some of the other index heavyweights, the Reliance Group, the IT pack, the capital good stocks, they have really been underperforming.

They have not been supporting this market as we have been going higher to levels of 5400 and beyond. Now last Friday I thought was a very important development because the banking index, the bank nifty hit a new lifetime high at 10780 and is now looking toppish on the charts.

So our view is that the banking rally has played out its course and if that index were to correct from current levels, which is our view right now, I think it might really weigh on the index quite substantially.

At the same time if I look at the local set up and compare with the global set up, I just get the feeling that Indian markets might not outperform anymore because the few pockets of strength in the market are looking very, very overheated and therefore I think we are in a scenario wherein there is a good chance of a breakdown below 5350 in the near term and once that gets confirmed, we could actually see a trending move of more than 10%-15% on the downside.

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