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Market to extend gains at start
July, 02nd 2009

Indian market is likely to extend Wednesday`s gains, at least at the start. Things could turn uncertain and sideways afterwards as most players would likely remain restrained ahead of the Railway Budget tomorrow and the Union Budget on Monday.

World equity markets started a new month and a new quarter on a positive note, with gains being registered across the board. The catalysts were a slew of economic reports that further reinforced a growing view that the worst of the global recession is behind us. Still, a few headwinds like unemployment and bankruptcies are yet to be tackled fully. Global trade remains in a limbo, while recovery in the crucial banking and housing sectors remain sluggish.

Coming to the todays outlook, the Indian market is likely to extend Wednesday's gains, at least at the start. Things could turn uncertain and sideways afterwards as most players would likely remain restrained ahead of the Railway Budget tomorrow and the Union Budget on Monday. The Economic Survey for FY09 will be presented in the parliament today.

We believe the Budget will be neutral from markets perspective. Expectations have been muted and rightly so. No point speculating on a big event like budget. The right approach is to wait for the event to unfold and then take a call. At the same time, one should not be too pessimistic either.

Economic activity across the globe is on a recovery path, though in the mature economies things are still precarious. Back home, mixed signals are coming from the latest data points. Manufacturing sector continues to show encouraging signs, as do the monthly sales volume of auto and cement companies. On the export front though, the gloom persists and is unlikely to end anytime soon. In fact, even inflationary expectations may escalate following the fuel price hike.

Also bear in mind, Wednesday's rally was pretty much restricted to the large caps, while the broader market remained subdued. Market breadth was negative and turnover too was down from the previous day. As far as fund action goes, the FIIs were net buyers while the local institutions chose to lock in some gains.

FIIs were net buyers in the cash segment on Wednesday at Rs1.86bn while the local institutions pulled out Rs763.8mn. In the F&O segment, the foreign funds were net buyers at Rs519.5mn. On Tuesday, FIIs were net buyers at Rs2.29bn in the cash segment.

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