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India's GDP to grow at 9.2%: CMIE
January, 29th 2010

India's economic growth is likely to return to pre-crisis levels in the next fiscal year, driven by strong industrial and agriculture growth, a recent review by a think tank showed.

The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) expects the Asia's third largest economy's GDP growth to accelerate to 9.2% in 2010/11 from 6.9% in 2009/10.

"In fiscal 2010/11, real GDP growth will be propelled by a strong performance by the industrial sector and a robust recovery in agricultural and elite sector. Services sector too is expected to do well," CMIE said in the report.

"A revival in consumer confidence and investment activities will supplement growth in the commodities segment," it added.

India's GDP growth slowed to 6.7% in 2008/09 from 9% or more in the previous three years as the effect of global financial turmoil hurt demand, prompting the authorities to unveil a spate of measures designed to boost the economy.

The measures helped as the country's industrial output grew at its fastest pace in two years in November at 11.7%, the economy expanded 7.9% in the September-quarter and inflation jumped to a one-year high of 7.3% in December

CMIE expects the wholesale price index, the main price barometer, to steadily fall to 7.7% in the June quarter and further to 3.8% March quarter of 2011.

The drop in inflation which is seen across primary articles, fuel and manufactured products, is likely to be because of the high base value in 2009/10 and a good kharif (summer) crop production in 2010, it said.

Headline inflation is estimated at 8.6% in March quarter, CMIE said.

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