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Market to remain volatile, face resistance at 5200: Udayan
September, 21st 2011

Yesterday was a good day for the market. The Nifty surged 108 points to close just below the 5,150. The Sensex too showed off gains to close 353 points higher at 17,099.

Udayan Mukherjee, managing director of CNBC-TV18 says, today the global cues are quite. The US markets ended mixed. The Asian markets are trading flat.

According to him, the global markets will watch out for US Fed meeting outcome.

He further says, the markets will remain volatile for the next few days. The Nifty, he says, will try and break the resistance at 5,200.

Also check: Your guide to trade market today

Below is the edited transcript of his comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

We had a good day yesterday, 100-point rally on the Nifty. But this morning global cues are quite. So, well probably fall into a bit of a trading range once again. The global markets are heading into a very important couple of days with the Fed meeting. And that could well be the next trigger for global markets as the Nifty tries to negotiate past that fairly significant resistance zone of around 5,200 over the next few days.

On the global markets:

I think the Fed meeting is quite important. While nobody is expecting a big bang QE3 or anything like that, it can't be a Jackson Hole either. Everybody has got its version of what the Fed may say or should say and thats been circulating. So, some expectation buildup is there. Though the market is not running away globally before the event, the S&P has moved to 1,200, but seems to be pausing there and wants to hear out the Fed before it moves 1,250 as a lot of people expect it to.

The data is not great globally. That continues to remain weak; IMF cut its global forecast yet again yesterday. All of that is fundamentally not strong, but technically the market seems in an excitable phase where it can move about 4-5% quite easily depending on the newsflow from Europe or from the US Fed. So, I guess for the next few days you are probably going to see a fairly volatile and excitable market not reflecting the fairly weak and tepid fundamentals, which remain in place.

On yesterdays trade:

The market has not done anything in September. If you just look at how we started off the series, there was a collapse to 4,700, then the markets have been trying to pull back. Through out the September series, the market has been more constructive, but in a broad range of 4,700 to 5,200.

Its made a couple of journeys close to 5,200, but not quite taken it out. So, I guess thats the big thing to watch as we enter the last leg of September series on whether this market probably moves to a slightly higher level before this pullback rally ends or its not going to move significantly higher than 5,200.

Its one of those series where the markets fallen into a bit of a trading range with a positive bias. And that you would have expected entirely after the damage that happened in August. So, I guess we are still volatile, but closer to the higher end of trading range now.

On the Nifty:

The good thing is that the Nifty has not, in this series, atleast shown an inclination to break down below the 4,900 level. And thats important because we started September series on a really rocky note.

If the market had gone below 4,900, then I think the possibility of breaking below the 4,700 level would have come to the fore. Even on the bad days, its gone to 4,900-5,000, but has not gone below that, even once in the September series. So, atleast there is that temporary illusion or feeling that the markets forming a slightly higher range, maybe 4,900, 5,200-5,300 on the way up and trying to see if at least for a few weeks it can hold that kind of a trading range. If global news permits, it can get its head a little higher in this phase of rebuilding.

The first test comes in around the 5,200 level. Its not very far from where we are, if we do get some news, which is perceived to be good from the Fed, its quite possible that the market moves beyond 5,200. But I think 5,200 to 5,350 zone broadly is the area of resistance where the market will find it challenging to move beyond. If it does, a lot of the positional guys will have to rethink their trading strategy.

We are in an interesting zone. But for now for lack of better evidence, you would have to say this might well be the top end of the trading range. The market is just moving from one trigger to another.

One trigger played out on Friday. Thats the monetary policy, it didnt do a whole lot for the market. Now, the next trigger is later tonight from the Fed. If that also plays out without any great upward thrust then you would probably want to think that for the near term 1,250 on the S&P and 5,300 on the Nifty might just be the sealing. We need some event or reason for the market to break past those levels.

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