Global macro news may push markets in recovery mode: Udayan
September, 09th 2011
Important macro news came in from global markets. First was the European Central Bank (ECB's) tone which was quite unsettling. They continued to sit on their hands on monetary policy or interest rates. That was followed by US President Barack Obamas much needed job creation package. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke didnt mention too many details either. There might be more coming at the FOMCs two day meet, however.
As these important macro events have happened, CNBC-TV18s managing editor Udayan Mukherjee says the mood across Asia has been stable. Markets may wonder if there will be any follow through on these events.
Also Read: Has Obama's jobs speech left investors sour about gold? Mukherjee felt Obamas plan seemed a little rhetoric with a few grey areas thrown in as well. Market may now wait and watch to see how soon the US President will implement his jobs plan.
Amid all this global newsflow, the markets will be in some recovery mode as they read between the lines. Today, the focal point will be the USD 447 billion jobs plan. He feels that emerging markets will focus on the positive and negative and India might follow the same route.
Below is a verbatim transcript of his comments. For complete details watch the accompanying video.
Q: Very sizable announcements by the US President in terms of the size and tax cuts but now the market is wondering whether there will be enough follow through on that?
A: Yes and more than the size of that USD 447 billion the market will start focusing on A) the details of that plan and B) whether it can be passed and funded. There are a lot of grey areas in the Obama plan. It seemed full of political rhetoric. So it is difficult to say whether they have a concrete funding plan going along the way because the US is very strained on its Fisc for them to push through another USD 447 billion plan over the next many years.
They will need a lot of budget cuts and we didnt see enough of those details on budget cut yesterday. I dont know whether the Congress will be jumping with joy about the plan and will be keen to pass that given the kind of situation they have on their hands with the Fisc. So thats a big problem they will face. It looks more like a political speech which the president had no recourse but to make.
Whether the market thinks it will be implemented, passed, funded and how soon it will start working on the employment numbers that is something that we need to see. The headline does not look bad which is probably what Asia is reacting too but the fine print will probably throw up some mix bag kind of reactions. Probably nothing to shout about from the rooftops from the little that one is seeing.
Q: Stripped off that event, globally the newsflow hasnt been that great. Not just from Bernankes speech but the kind of tone that has come out from Europe and the ECB is quite unsettling?
A: That was a bit disappointing yesterday that the ECB and the BOE chose to sit on its hands without doing anything on monetary policy or interest rates. The one thing it did was to tell us that the Euro land is facing depression and things will get worse from here which the market knows already. That was the first bit of disappointment early in the evening.
Bernanke has not changed too much. He just says the same thing which is that he will act if required but right now no details are coming. Maybe he is waiting for the two day FOMC meeting to unveil some further details but nothing that was said was new to the market. In that it was probably a bit of a non-event. The Asian market reaction today is quite interesting as well because they started off sluggish and then they started recovering. That tells you that the markets are in some kind of a recovery mode at this point in time and its probably more inclined to read the glass as half full rather than half empty.
At another time, if the market was in an established downtrend, you might have seen people sulking on the Obama speech saying its too political, low on detail, wont be funded, wont be passed and the markets might have reacted on the way down. But today its focusing on the headline - the USD 447 billion number and is choosing to go up and that tells you probably that emerging markets are still on reconstruction mode after the August fall. Therefore, its latching on to the positive bits of news and ignoring the bad bits of news.
India might do the same so we are in that kind of phase right now where we want to ferret out the good news and try and climb a little higher over the next few days, whatever shape the news is in. Given that frame of mind, the Obama plan might just evince marginally positive kind of reaction from global equities.