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Market may not have bottomed out: Udayan
August, 18th 2011

Last night, the Dow and the S&P closed flat. Today, Asian markets are trading lower. The global markets have been volatile, says Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18.

He further says, the Indian market has also been rangebound for the last couple of sessions. The market is waiting for the next big event to lead it in either direction, he added.

According to him, it would be brave to think that the market has bottomed out.

Also read: Traders should avoid taking call on small-cap bets, says Tulsian

Below is the edited transcript of his comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Its been a couple of rangebound sessions for the Nifty; its, for the moment, hanging in above the 5,000 mark. Global markets too have gone a bit sideways. They too are volatile. But they are not making those massive 4-5% moves everyday. So, the volatility has subsided a little bit. We are just ambling through this week and waiting for the next big event to lead us in either direction.

On global markets:

Volumes have drifted off. Look at the US, volatility has subsided, volumes have come down. Exhaustion is probably the right word because they have gone through such a grinder over the last fortnight or so. This had to happen. This level of volatility just could not have sustained.

People probably are just lying comatose on the sidelines, waiting for the next big event to pop-up. And till then, the market is just ambling through. Its still not settled by a long short. We have had a massive fall. We have had one leg of a pullback and now we are going through the sideways move. So, I guess all of us are in the same boat globally. We are all waiting for the next major development globally to take us up or down.

The fact that crude is stubbornly at USD 110 per barrel once again makes matters a bit worse because that was the one hope, the only silver lining, that at the end of this global turbulence at least we will have something to celebrate and thats the demise of crude. But thats just not happened yet.

On the Nifty:

Its not been a great couple of days. While the Nifty has manage to hold 5,000 to 5,100 kind of range, I think considerable damage has been done outside the index in many sectors. So, hereto the mood isnt great. The best that one can say about the market is that the largecaps are not seeing a waterfall decline. After the fall to sub-5,000, at least for the moment it seems to be stabilising. But he is a brave man who calls a bottom here, despite the fact that in the last couple of days a few bluechips have tended to come up and support the market.

We are probably waiting for the next storm to come up now and just ducking our head and waiting by for the moment. So, its not a great looking market. The best you can hope for is that leading up to expiry, if global markets remains stable, you see a bit more short covering in the largecaps. And that carries us back once again to that 5,200, best case 5,300 kind of scenario. But anything more than that would be at this point a bit wishful.

In the last couple of days, I think the screen at least on the largecaps has not given us any great clues. I mean the best you can say is that it seems reluctant to cross over 5,200 just yet. Therefore, every time it gets its head up supply seems to materialise quite easily. On the flip side, every time it gets close to 5,000, there is not great momentum on the way down either, at least this week it hasnt been the case.

I guess the bears are also just a bit reluctant to press short sales below the 5,000 level because of the recent experience of volatility. Therefore, even the bears, though they might have the upper hand right now, are a bit leery of taking large positions on the way down. They probably will do that if 5,000 breaks on the way down and then they find more confidence to go out and play for a couple of 100 points on the Nifty.

So, its not a great looking screen. The Nifty is still keeping people guessing because its not violating 5,000 or 5,200 with great momentum or convection on either side.

I dont know what will change this kind of lull, if you will, after the volatility. May be its another bit of global news which will come about and that will change things around. But so far this week, I think its kept both the bulls and the bears guessing.

 
 
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