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Uptrend threatened in markets
August, 10th 2009

TWO successive sell-offs at the end of the week placed the indices firmly in the red, with the BSE Sensitive Index finishing 3.26% or 510.07 points lower, and the Nifty 3.34% down. The CNX Midcap Index lost 2.47%. Sun Pharmaceuticals was the biggest winner among index stocks with a 2.4% gain.

The other index stocks to go up included Reliance Industries, Wipro and Hindalco with gains falling between 2.0% and 1.1%.

Jaiprakash Associates was the biggest loser among index stocks with a 9.4% loss. The other index stocks to go down included Maruti Suzuki, ITC, Hero Honda and Reliance Communications with losses falling between 8.6% and 7.6%.

HOEC was the biggest winner among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 26.0% gain. The other non-index stocks to go up included Core Projects, Great Offshore, BPCL, Financial Technologies, Bharat Forge, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Firstsource Solutions with gains falling between 13.2% and 7.8%.

Suzlon Energy was the biggest loser among the more heavily traded non-index stocks with a 12.8% loss. The other non-index stocks to go down included Axis Bank, Hindustan Construction, Mundra Port, Tech Mahindra, IDBI Bank, United Spirits and Yes Bank with losses falling between 11.3% and 8.7%.

INTERMEDIATE TREND

The market is still in an intermediate uptrend which is now about four weeks old. The uptrend started from the Sensitive Indexs July 13 low of 13,220, and its peak gains are 2,782 points or 21.1%. The Sensitive Index would have to fall below 14,888 to drop into an intermediate downtrend.

The equivalent for the Nifty is 4,421, and that for the CNX Midcap is 5,719. A fall similar to those seen on Thursday and Friday would trigger a downtrend. Almost all global markets are also in intermediate uptrends, making the global intermediate trend up as well. Global markets also fell towards the end of the week, but are not as close to their downtrend trigger levels as our indices.

LONG-TERM TREND

Our markets long-term trend is up, as is the case with a majority of the global indices. The Sensitive Index, the CNX Midcap and the Nifty all made fresh bull market highs during this intermediate uptrend , indicating that the bull market is continuing at this time. The bull market can be said to have started with the Sensitive Indexs October 27, 08 low of 7,697, and has resulted in a 108% gain for the index in nine months.

TRADING & INVESTING STRATEGIES

Buying for longer-term investing should now be done only after the next intermediate downtrend develops, and runs for at least a week. The market is not showing any definite sectoral preference at this time, and relatively strong and weak stocks appear to be distributed across most sectors.

GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

Almost all global markets are in intermediate uptrends, which are looking stable for now. The Indian indices are closer to their intermediate downtrend triggers than most other markets. The Dow and several European indices are now in bull phases, leaving only a small minority in bear markets. It could, therefore, be said that we are in a global bull phase.

The BSE Sensitive Index had gained 2.6% in the twelve months that ended on Thursday, down three positions to the 7th place among 35 well-known global indices considered for the study.

Shanghai continues to head the list with a 27.3% gain. Chile, Indonesia, Turkey and Malaysia follow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has lost 19.0% and the NASDAQ Composite has lost 16.2% over the same period. (These rankings do not take exchange rate effects into consideration)

 
 
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