Valuations not very stretched in Indian markets: UBS Securities
July, 12th 2011
ET Now caught up with Suresh Mahadevan, Managing Director and Head of Equities, UBS Securities , for his views on Infosys results and the market. Excerpts:
ET Now: Before anything else, a quick word on Infy and whether or not the management commentary has disappointed you? Would you say the numbers are in line?
Suresh Mahadevan: First of all there are two-three areas of disappointment. First, both revenue and net profit were marginally below where the street was. It is a marginal miss I think. What probably people are quite disappointed by is the second quarter guidance which at 3.5 to 5. Normally it is a strong quarter and that has been a little bit disappointing. But I would not say it is such a big disaster or anything. So marginally on the disappointing side both the guidance and the numbers and of course margins also came in below what the street was kind of expecting. So those are the three areas of disappointment I would guess. The commentary probably is in line with the guidance. So that goes hand in hand, I suppose.
ET Now: So are you advising your clients to buy the current decline in Infy?
Suresh Mahadevan: We still are positive on Infosys. So the estimate revisions may be revised marginally lower, not necessarily for us but even for the street. May be in a low single digit 3%-4% lowering may be possible because of the second quarter guidance which normally is stronger. But we still like Infosys at these levels and especially post today's correction, we still have a buy rating as of now. So yes we still have a buy.
ET Now: Is the packing order for large cap IT now changing? Two years ago it was Infosys, TCS, Wipro, HCL Tech , now the new order is TCS, HCL Tech, Infosys and now then Wipro?
Suresh Mahadevan: Certainly for most part of last year we were pushing TCS which was the right call and earlier this year we kind a switched our preference to Infosys when TCS started trading at a premium, but clearly the last year, year-and-a-half TCS has done much better. But clearly my own sense is with all the leadership and board level issues kind of getting sorted out in terms of all the changes being announced. I think Infosys should also see, may be in second part of this year, some uptick, that is what I am thinking. But let us wait and see the data points, but clearly this is a stock which has a lot of interest among both foreigners and domestic investors. And it is probably the most widely followed apart from some of the big heavyweights.
ET Now: Domestic internals aside, what do you make of the global scenario right now because first it was Greece and now it is Italy and that is quite now auguring well for the global markets?
Suresh Mahadevan: Yes, that is probably the biggest risk the Indian stock market has because if you see most of the bad news domestically is kind of priced in, that is my view, whether it is high inflation, negative earnings momentum, inactivity of the government on the policy front, most of the stuff is kind of priced in to Indian stocks today. But what is the risk is what you pointed out is some out of an external shock, something blows up somewhere else and then you have this risk, and that creates a big selloff in India. That is a possibility given what you just described.
My sense is that if that were to happen then it will give a golden opportunity to pick specific stocks because everything gets marked down good, bad and then that is a time probably for investors to do some bottom up stock picking. So my sense is that is the only risk I see for the markets because as I said the domestic negatives are more or less in the price I would believe.