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« Forex »
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 Perils of an ad hoc forex policy
 Rupee depreciated by 17 paise to Rs 45.62 a dollar in early trade
 Rupee strengthened by 7 paise against dollar
 Rupee up by 4 paise against dollar in early trade
 Rupee falls by 18 paise at 4-week low against dollar
 Rupee drops on weak shares; inflation eyed
 Rupee raises 6 paise against dollar in early trade
 Rupee among most traded in futures market
 Indian rupee gain 12 paise against US dollar
 Rupee marginally rise up by 1 paise against US dollar
 Rupee drops tracking euro, choppy shares

Forex: Immediate resistance seen at 45.66
May, 17th 2010

Risk appetite found a floor last week, as volatility reduced on the measures announced to support the troubled euro-area economies.

In tandem, the rupee failed to convincingly break above 45 and finished the week on a weak note. In the near-term, global uncertainties may continue to cap the downside to dollar-rupee as the market debates the efficacy of the E750 billion emergency fiscal stabilisation fund from the EU and IMF, designed to address euro-area sovereign concerns.

However, a positive surprise could come from a possible yuan revaluation, especially for the Asian currencies. Onshore markets are focused on the ongoing 3G auctions (flows may be spread over weeks though) and the related capital inflows.

Technically, the short-term outlook for USD-INR is mixed. Both stochastics and the RSI are in neutral territory, indicating sideways movement. Immediate resistance is at 45.66, which is the 100-day moving average. On the downside, 44.80 is an important trend support. In sum, USD-INR is likely to trade in 44.80-45.50 range this week.

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