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 Perils of an ad hoc forex policy
 Rupee depreciated by 17 paise to Rs 45.62 a dollar in early trade
 Rupee strengthened by 7 paise against dollar
 Rupee up by 4 paise against dollar in early trade
 Rupee falls by 18 paise at 4-week low against dollar
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Dollar-Rupee range seen at 44.20- 44.75
April, 19th 2010

The recent moves by the Chinese authorities in the property market along with the negative news flow out of the US and Europe on Friday have set the tone for the rupee to trade with a slightly weaker bias for the week.

Though the reasons for sell-off might not be sustainable, the huge rally that the risk markets have enjoyed in the recent past might add some weight to the correction. Expect oil companies to buy aggressively close to the recent lows of around 44.20.

On the downside, 44.12 is a key level, below which sell-side stops are placed, and on the top-side 44.69 the recent high, and 44.90 the closing level for the previous financial year, are the key levels to watch.

A bigger hike would propel more capital flows and add to the appreciating pressures for the rupee.

Key global events to watch for would be the road show by the Greek authorities to issue US dollar-denominated bonds, tentatively scheduled for April 20. This will give a sense of the demand for Greek papers and thus global forex majors.

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