Markets may consolidate around 8400-8600 levels till Budget: Sanjay Dutt, Quantum Securities
February, 09th 2015
Tell me if the exit polls are predicting the right picture? How do you think the market will react to it because today's weakness is probably partly attributed to that?
Sanjay Dutt: These are exit polls and not the actual results, but on balance it is very positive for the market. The much-anticipated correction at 8900 was extended much beyond the fundamentals. So for whatever reason, be it the Delhi results or something else that might have led to this correction, it is pretty good for the markets. I do not find any reason for any investor to really get worried about it.
ET Now: Not a worry considering any correction is healthy after the heady run up that we have had since last year, but what is the sense that you are getting about market men given how earnings have panned out? Are they getting a little circumspect about whether the government at the Centre is going to really deliver and the thumping victory for AAP is only going to reinforce that a little bit of sceptical view is creeping in?
Sanjay Dutt: It is only a short-term worry that earnings are not picking up, balance sheets are not improving and restructuring is taking time. The RBI and SEBI are working on policies to sort out the bank balance sheets and that is what is worrying the markets and probably has led to the correction. The earnings this quarter ending December have not been as good as what one thought and have been much below expectations. The Delhi polls are not that relevant as such in the sense that they will be forgotten when the budget is there.
ET Now: What happens in the interim, while we wait for the budget to come in because the numbers, as you said, have looked weak and assuming there is a clear majority for the Aam Aadmi Party tomorrow, do you think there would be an impact on the markets for a couple of days?
Sanjay Dutt: Whatever has to pan out will pan out this week itself and the markets would probably consolidate or meander around this 8400-8600 range. I think 8400 is an extreme which we probably might touch, but I do not think anything more than that will happen till the Budget comes out. People have started anticipating the budget and I am actually in a way very happy that this kind of political result is coming out because my sense is that the government will get very serious about implementing the development agenda and try to rev up the economy.
ET Now: Two months ago, you had talked about an impending correction in the markets in the month of January. It has clearly played out and you are also talking about correction all the way till 8400, but do you think this could be a time-wise correction that we may be heading into the Budget?
Sanjay Dutt: The markets are totally going to be driven by earnings in the next few months. The markets are going to be totally focused on earnings and how the order books and how the cash flows of companies start to look under the new political regime. Coming to your point of about 8400 as a level, I do not think it's going to get there because there is a lot of money on the sidelines which will start flowing into the market. If the market pauses at another 200-300 points from here, I do not think 8400 would be touched. It is an extreme probability that we might see and even technically there is substantial support at the 8400-8450 levels.