Top five factors which could chart market direction in the coming week
January, 02nd 2017
The year 2016 was not that bad for equity markets which surged 2-3 per cent compared with 5 per cent fall in the previous calendar year. But, 2017 will be full of surprises as well as challenges for both domestic and global equities.
The S&P BSE Sensex closed 1.95 per cent higher in the calendar year 2016 compared with 5 per cent drop in the previous calendar year. The Nifty50 rose 3.01 per cent in the same period.
The month of January is unlikely to be a smooth ride for investors or traders. There are a lot of global as well as domestic events lined up which will lead to volatility. Traders are advised to trade with strict stop losses, but overall most analysts view 2017 to be a year of bulls.
Indian market should pick momentum after the second half of the calendar year as the effect of demonetisation starts to fade away. It will be tough for the index to display a runaway performance but there will be plenty of stock specific action.
Going by the buzz on Dalal Street, here is a list of five factors that could chart market direction during the coming week:
December Auto Sales Number: Four and two-wheeler stocks will be in focus in the coming week as auto sale numbers for the month of June will be announced starting from January 2. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and Ashok Leyland will be on the watch list.
Macroeconomic Data: Apart from auto sales numbers, market participants will closely track Nikkei Manufacturing PMI data for the month of December which is scheduled for Monday and Nikkei Services PMI data for the month of December which is expected to be declared on Wednesday.
The headline figure for the PMI for India was 52.3 in November, with a reading over 50 indicating an expansion in activity. Nikkei/Markit Services PMI sank to 46.7 in November from October's 54.5.
US Fed Minutes: The US Fed minutes are scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Although, there were no surprises with the interest rate decision, but the minutes from December's FOMC meeting will be very important in understanding the outlook for the year 2017.
"We believe that the Fed comments have been discounted as the announcement did not impact markets significantly. We expect hikes to be back-ended or evenly spread out rather than being front-ended," Kamlesh Rao, CEO, Kotak Securities told ETMarkets.com.
"Post the previous increase in December 2015, the Fed has indicated subsequent interest rate hikes, but did not increase rates for the next 12 months," he said.
GST Meeting: The government is committed to implementing the goods & services tax (GST) by April 1, 2017, but the challenges are plenty. The next meeting of the Council, on January 3 and 4, will try to resolve the issue of dividing the administrative powers between the Centre and states. The meeting will also take up Integrated GST (IGST).
The GST is a single indirect tax if implemented, will incorporate most central and state taxes like the Value-Added Tax, service tax, central sales tax, excise duty, additional customs duty and special additional customs duty.
Technical Factors: The Nifty50 closed shade below its crucial psychological level of 8,200 on the last working day of the year 2016. The Nifty50 looks stable after the recent rally in the last week of December.
The Nifty50 formed a Bullish candle on Daily charts on Friday and a Bullish Engulfing pattern on the weekly chart which is suggesting positive sentiment.
"We are close to the short-term bottom and a rebound in the passing week has strengthened our belief. Having said that, upside also seems capped in Nifty due to the existence of multiple hurdles around 8300," Jayant Manglik, President, Retail Distribution, Religare Securities Ltd told ETMarkets.com.
"Hence, it's prudent to continue with the stock specific trading approach and avoid betting heavily on the index. Among sectoral indices, energy, media looks upbeat for further rise along with select private bank and auto counters," he said.