Markets need to prove that present rally is different
January, 19th 2012
The more relevant question is that in the last one year each time the market rallied 8% from the lows, how long did it sustain above those levels. Has anything changed for us to assume that from 8% we can go up to 10%. Surely, we can go up to 10%. However, we are facing a declining 200-day moving average and each time if we sold after a 8%-9% rally, we will make money.
So, I am not too excited about this global strength and 50-piont SGX up. This is because we are not at 4600, we are at 5000. 100 points more is possible but from a traders' point of view, my risk reward is that it might be 100 points upside could be 200-250 points downside. The market needs to prove that this time it is different and after the 8% rally, we are going to get a further 8% rally.
Otherwise, trying to buy near 5000 is a recipe of disaster because a lot of the good news has been priced in. Beyond a point, global markets cannot pull up any index. Nifty must stay above 4955 to remain positive for the day. Resistances come in at 4979 and 5004, support comes in at 4930 and 4906. Bank Nifty must stay above 9004 to stay positive. CNX IT, that number is 5920