With demonetisation-related curbs close to an end, the focus now shifts to the measures the government will likely take to stoke an economy low on cash.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi along with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and his team listened to 13 economists and experts on suggestions for the economy ahead of the Budget.
Following are the five changes that can be announced in the Budget based on the meeting highlights:
Tax simplification was the common theme among all economists. There was a case made for simplifying, reducing exemptions, bringing down tax rate and aligning tax system to make India competitive with respect to global economies. Post demonetisation, the government is likely to announce a tax cut on direct taxes.
Inverted duty structure has been cited as a common reason for the woes of many industries. There are still many sectors where the duties on components and inputs are higher than the final products, which affects manufacturers of final products. Realigning the tax structure has been a long standing demand by the industry which has once again been voiced by economists. Suggestions were made that a flat rate of 7 percent be imposed.
Employment generation is also likely to find mention in the Budget. Sops for employment generation and skill development may be on the cards. Tourism industry, which has potential to generate high paying job, can be expected to get some benefits in the Budget.
Agriculture has normally been a favourite for finance ministers in various Budgets. Economists pointed out that more is need in terms of market reforms, micro irrigation, interest subvention and doubling farmer income. Further, impetus will be provided for farmers in the Budget.
Digitalisation was another area which was discussed and so was cashless transfers. Implementation of direct benefit transfer (DTB) for all forms of subsidy transfers was discussed. Budget document is likely to find increased network of DTB which has presently been restricted to a small area.
One interesting issue that was discussed but has rarely been highlighted in the Budget speeches is data analysis. In a digital economy, government will have access to multiple sources of data. Search engines and e-commerce companies have shown the impact data analysis can have. Indian government needs reliable, and more importantly timely data in order to monitor and provide timely stimulus to the economy. Some money allocated to data will bring very high returns in years ahead.
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