sitemapHome | Registration | Job Portal for CA's | Expert Exchange | Currency Converter | Post Matrimonial Ads | Post Property Ads
News shortcuts: From the Courts | News Headlines | VAT (Value Added Tax) | Placements & Empanelment | Various Acts & Rules | Latest Circulars | New Forms | Forex | Auditing | Direct Tax | Customs and Excise | ICAI | Corporate Law | Markets | Students | General | Mergers and Acquisitions | Continuing Prof. Edu. | Budget Extravaganza | Transfer Pricing | GST - Goods and Services Tax
Latest Expert Exchange
Latest Circulars »
  RBI-Setting up of IFSC Banking Units (IBUs) – Permissible activities
 RBI-Basel III Framework on Liquidity Standards – Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) – Final Guidelines
 RBI imposes penalty on The United Co-operative Bank Ltd., Bagnan Station Road(North), PO- Bagnan, Dist- Howrah, West Bengal
 Auction for Sale (Re-issue) of Government Stock (GS) May 14, 2018
 Auction of Government of India Dated Securities May 14, 2018
 RBI declines to share copies of inspection reports
  RBI - Auction of State Government Securities
 Revised guidelines on lending to Priority Sector for Primary (Urban) Co-operative Banks (UCBs)
 RBI to conduct 7-day Variable Rate Reverse Repo Auction under LAF on May 10, 2018
  Monitoring of foreign investment limits in listed Indian companies
 Auction for Sale (Re-issue) of Government Stock (GS) May 7, 2018

RBI Working Paper Series 11: Forecasting Major Macroeconomic Variables in India: Performance Comparison of Linear, Nonlinear models and Forecast Combinations
December, 26th 2014

The Reserve Bank of India today placed on its website, a Working Paper titled “Forecasting major macroeconomic variables in India – Performance comparison of linear, nonlinear models and forecast combinations” under the Reserve Bank of India Working Paper Series. This paper is written by Anirban Sanyal and Indrajit Roy of the Department of Statistics and Information Management, Reserve Bank of India.

This paper evaluates the accuracy of linear, non-linear time series models as also both models combined in forecasting major macroeconomic variables - Monthly series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - in Indian context.

The paper observes that for IIP (and its sub component) series, in the short horizon (1-6 months), forecast combination (median) is found to be marginally better performing than linear as well as non-linear modelling framework. In the long horizon (7-12 months), non-linear models perform relatively better than linear models as well as combination forecast. For GDP (and its sub-component) series, forecast combination using median forecast, has been found to be performing relatively better for both short horizon as well as long horizon.

Additionally, the paper observes that the accuracy of the forecast improves by using combination forecast for series with long memory property/less volatile series.

Ajit Prasad
Assistant General Manager

Press Release : 2014-2015/1334

Home | About Us | Terms and Conditions | Contact Us
Copyright 2018 CAinINDIA All Right Reserved.
Designed and Developed by Binarysoft Technologies Pvt. Ltd.
Binarysoft Technologies - Sitemap

Transfer Pricing | International Taxation | Business Consulting | Corporate Compliance and Consulting | Assurance and Risk Advisory | Indirect Taxes | Direct Taxes | Transaction Advisory | Regular Compliance and Reporting | Tax Assessments | International Taxation Advisory | Capital Structuring | Withholding tax advisory | Expatriate Tax Reporting | Litigation | Badges | Club Badges | Seals | Military Insignias | Emblems | Family Crest | Software Development India | Software Development Company | SEO Company | Web Application Development | MLM Software | MLM Solutions