sitemapHome | Registration | Job Portal for CA's | Expert Exchange | Currency Converter | Post Matrimonial Ads | Post Property Ads
News shortcuts: From the Courts | News Headlines | VAT (Value Added Tax) | Placements & Empanelment | Various Acts & Rules | Latest Circulars | New Forms | Forex | Auditing | Direct Tax | Customs and Excise | ICAI | Corporate Law | Markets | Students | General | Mergers and Acquisitions | Continuing Prof. Edu. | Budget Extravaganza | Transfer Pricing | GST - Goods and Services Tax
Latest Expert Exchange
Latest Circulars »
 Reporting and Accounting of Central Government Transactions of March 2019
 Auction for Sale (Re-issue) of Government Stock (GS) March 18, 2019
 Auction of Government of India Dated Securities March 18, 2019
 Reserve Bank of India Clarifies
 Reserve Bank of India (Prevention of Market Abuse) Directions, 2019
 22nd Meeting of the FSDC Sub-Committee – Mumbai
 RBI to inject Rupee liquidity through long term USD/INR Buy/Sell Swap auction
 RBI-Stable inflation, slower industrial production raise chances of RBI rate cut
  RBI Announces OMO Purchase of Government of India Dated Securities
 Notification No. 20 /2019 - Customs (N.T.) Ministry Of Finance
 Notification No.21/2019 - Customs (N.T.) Central Board Of Indirect Taxes And Customs

RBI Working Paper Series 11: Forecasting Major Macroeconomic Variables in India: Performance Comparison of Linear, Nonlinear models and Forecast Combinations
December, 26th 2014

The Reserve Bank of India today placed on its website, a Working Paper titled “Forecasting major macroeconomic variables in India – Performance comparison of linear, nonlinear models and forecast combinations” under the Reserve Bank of India Working Paper Series. This paper is written by Anirban Sanyal and Indrajit Roy of the Department of Statistics and Information Management, Reserve Bank of India.

This paper evaluates the accuracy of linear, non-linear time series models as also both models combined in forecasting major macroeconomic variables - Monthly series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - in Indian context.

The paper observes that for IIP (and its sub component) series, in the short horizon (1-6 months), forecast combination (median) is found to be marginally better performing than linear as well as non-linear modelling framework. In the long horizon (7-12 months), non-linear models perform relatively better than linear models as well as combination forecast. For GDP (and its sub-component) series, forecast combination using median forecast, has been found to be performing relatively better for both short horizon as well as long horizon.

Additionally, the paper observes that the accuracy of the forecast improves by using combination forecast for series with long memory property/less volatile series.

Ajit Prasad
Assistant General Manager

Press Release : 2014-2015/1334

Home | About Us | Terms and Conditions | Contact Us
Copyright 2019 CAinINDIA All Right Reserved.
Designed and Developed by Binarysoft Technologies Pvt. Ltd.
Binarysoft Technologies - Sitemap

Transfer Pricing | International Taxation | Business Consulting | Corporate Compliance and Consulting | Assurance and Risk Advisory | Indirect Taxes | Direct Taxes | Transaction Advisory | Regular Compliance and Reporting | Tax Assessments | International Taxation Advisory | Capital Structuring | Withholding tax advisory | Expatriate Tax Reporting | Litigation | Badges | Club Badges | Seals | Military Insignias | Emblems | Family Crest | Software Development India | Software Development Company | SEO Company | Web Application Development | MLM Software | MLM Solutions