Market expects government to borrow Rs 40,000-50,000 crore: Ashish Ghiya, Derivium Capital & Securities
December, 20th 2011
We saw the RBI statement come out last Friday, no surprises there. But given the fact that it has given some sort of assurance to the markets that it will exercise OMO purchases in the market as and when required, do you believe that is comfort enough really for the bond markets?
Ashish Ghiya: My takeaway on the bond markets was more like, bond markets they got a fantastic flavour of teasing. Teaser kind of a background where RBI did briefly mentioned that the rate cycle has turned. So that definitely turns the mood positive. And it also mentioned the OMOs will be conducted so this is giving money to kind of punt on that. So it was a good teaser, it is like acting without acting stuff. Certainly, it will be pretty positive for a bond markets.
ET Now: Do you think that the bond markets at all were expecting a cut in the CRR which was quite a contentious issue and how do you believe what is the range that you are foreseeing for the yield on the bonds going forward?
Ashish Ghiya: Markets did not go into the review particularly expecting a CRR cut, although may be around a week or 10 days back there was a very heightened excitement. There is a lot of excitement in the market regarding one. But going into the review market, they were not expecting CRR cut so in that sense they were okay. We did not really believe that RBI would go ahead with the CRR cut till OMOs are doing well.
Going ahead, it would be dare devilish to say that the yields are going to go up, but there are two-three factors picking the yields. One is how long will the OMO purchase go on, because markets are largely getting supported by that.
So, if the OMO purchase auctions kind of stop by something like around mid January or something and if that is coupled with the extra borrowing which the markets are expecting the government to announce, it all depends on the timing of that. But my range should be something in the range of 8.75 to 8.5 stuff on 10-year bonds.
ET Now: You did talk about the additional government borrowings that the market is anticipating, do you expect that announcement to come may be by mid to end January and what is the extent to which you see the government borrowing additionally from the markets?
Ashish Ghiya: If the government has to announce next to our borrowing programme which is widely expected, they will have to announce it much quicker because January is like they are losing lot of time because in terms of the auction calendar also they just have the full of March. They have the whole of March and of a few weeks in between to kind of cover it up. So they will have to announce and tell the markets much earlier than that, if they have to.