India will underperform rest of the markets globally: Derivium Tradition
November, 19th 2011
With respect to what you believe may be causing this would you believe that it is purely due to the liquidity situation or the fact that where piggybacking on the kind of global cues that we have seen of late?
Sandeep Bharadwaj: See the global factors are only a part of the problem. The major problem is coming from the local issues and this time in my view India will underperform the rest of the markets globally. The most important reason is that rupee depreciation, we expect rupee to make to go down below the all time lows of 52 and head towards 54.5-55 levels and I do not think RBI has any ammunition to check the decline of rupee primarily because of the fiscal and the current account deficit. I think when we move into March at that time it will be far worse than what we are in right now this situation. The government is getting very desperate and today you must have seen the news about trying to tax the companies on transfer pricing and their fixed interest rates that group companies can lend to each other at 16% these kind of measures only shows that desperation of the government because who lends at 16%, the banks also do not lent at 16% but they have fixed it as a penalty. So, we think that the situation has started to worsen and it will get far worse from here.
ET Now: You did say that the local issues are weighing over global issues as far as the equity markets here go, those local issues are that some of which you highlighted are not going to go away in a hurry so essentially are we talking about the market slipping further and what levels are you seeing for the Nifty in the near term?
Sandeep Bharadwaj: So the situation we think from February we have been bearish on the markets. I think we are the one of the first guys to be bearish on the markets and the situation has panned out so instead of getting more bearish we are getting more scared now. So our level is about 3700-4200 levels on Nifty and without a doubt we think that will be achieved. We expect that next year's earnings to decline from FY12 earnings. We should achieve 5% to 6% growth for FY12 and FY13 will be lower than FY12 earnings. And I do not think that is really priced in, some of the midcaps are showing that they are already showing reflecting a price of 3700 level nifty and some of the A group stocks have also shown that. But the way index has held on it is only a question of time before it starts to head a lot lower.